Originally posted on my old blog 02/07/2020
Silly season started a whole lot earlier than we expected this year, before any racing had actually taken place. I had hoped to write about the developments whilst they were well, actually developing, but university work got in the way. Oh well! Kick started by the announcement that Sebastian Vettel is to leave Ferrari at the end of the 2020 season, a chain of events unravelled that has seen Carlos Sainz win the much coveted Ferrari seat for 2021, and Daniel Ricciardo moving to fill his seat at McLaren, leaving a free space at Renault.
Firstly, lets look at Seb. It had seemed likely for a while that his time at Ferrari was running out, but nonetheless the departure came as a bit of a shock (for me at least). Charles Leclerc’s 5 year contract has firmly asserted him as the driver that the team are putting their energy and hopes behind for a title challenge, establishing him as their number one driver. Yet it was still surprising that Seb decided to call it a day, before the possibility of establishing himself as Ferrari’s best hope over the course of the 2020 season had even begun. It will be interesting to see how the, shall we say frosty, relationship between the two drivers plays out this year. With nothing to lose, will Seb’s loyalty to the team of Ferrari disappear? Will he ignore team orders, throw caution to the wind, and attempt to show them they’ve made a mistake? Perhaps a bit, but despite his demonstrations of a fiery attitude over the years (Baku 2018, Canada 2019), I don’t think its in his nature as a sportsman to act like that towards his team. What will happen, I’m not sure; as ever we shall have to wait and see.
What next for Vettel though? With gaps opening up across the driver market there are plenty of options for him to choose from. Whilst it would be every F1 fan’s (apart from maybe a handful of Lewis Hamilton fans) dream come true to see him partner the six time world champion, the chances of that happening I believe are sadly slim to none. There’s an empty seat at Renault but Vettel’s chances of taking it depend on their performance this year, and moreover, the success and attitude of Esteban Ocon. Having left Ferrari after being usurped by a young talent, I can’t imagine Vettel is eager to repeat that process. He was explicit in his statement describing his decision to leave, and has been explicit throughout his career, that money is not a motivating factor behind his decisions, so maybe he might go to a smaller team? If a seat opens up at Alfa Romeo due to either Kimi Raikkonen’s retirement or Antonio Giovinazzi’s departure, it’s a possibility Vettel may take it. If Giovinazzi does get the boot wouldn’t it be amazing to see Seb and Kimi back together? Sadly, I think this is little more than wishful thinking. The big question is how Seb’s passion for racing, desire to win another world championship, and pride balance out. With Lewis closing in on Schumacher’s 7 championships, I think through his Ferrari departure Seb has probably given up on the dream of matching his great rival, especially as with the regulation changes being pushed back a year it doesn’t look likely that a midfield team could provide him with the chance to challenge for top spot any time soon. With his pride being so evidently dented by Leclerc’s ascent, I’m not sure I can picture Seb being comfortable towards the back of the grid in a car that struggles to collect points. Sadly, I think the most likely option for him is retirement. An extremely down to earth and private guy, he must be eager to spend more time with his family and three young children, away from the spotlight and pressures of Formula 1. I’ll be sad to see him go if this is indeed the road he takes, but despite his recent dip in form, he will certainly go down in the history books as one of the best, funniest, and most enigmatic Formula 1 drivers of all time.
The choice for Vettel’s replacement at Ferrari was really only between Ricciardo and Sainz, and I had a feeling Sainz would be their pick (I promise!). Again it comes down to the rivalries that often emerge between the veteran and the upstart, and Ricciardo did not take Max Verstappen’s success well. He needs to be in a team where he can be the leader, and although it would be a dream come true to sign for the prancing horse, and he’s a reliable in terms of his talent, I don’t think it would be an ideal situation for either party. Sainz on the other hand is a great fit. He really proved his talent last season and came away with a podium and 6th place in the driver’s championship to show for it. But other than that, he has shown himself to be a true team player, someone who will go above and beyond in terms of developing the car and forming proper relationships with everyone working around him. Rather than joining the scores of drivers living in Monaco, he moved from his hometown of Madrid to London to be closer to the McLaren base, just one example of his dedication. This will surely have caught Ferrari’s eye and I think is what really sealed the deal for Sainz. I’ll talk about who might take the empty seat at Renault another time, but I think Ricciardo’s departure from the team was probably a good idea. They simply weren’t delivering on what they had promised him when they lured him over from Red Bull. Ricciardo is only 31, but he isn’t getting any younger and can’t really afford to spend his time waiting around for the team to get better, when there is a free seat at the team which is in the position that they want to be. He also already has a good relationship with Lando Norris, who so far has shown himself to be a fair and supportive teammate. If McLaren’s upward trajectory continues then this is a very positive move for the Australian. Thank god for all this drama giving us something to talk about whilst we wait for racing to resume!
