We’re in for a treat of a battle between one of F1’s all time greats, and one of its future stars.
For the first time since 2012, the season that gave us 7 winners in the first 7 races, it looks like we have a genuine title fight on our hands between drivers from separate teams. F1 fans from across the world are rubbing their hands at the prospect of a battle between arguably the two greatest drivers of their respective eras: Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen. But who is going to triumph, and who will finish second best?
In my opinion, they are the two most talented drivers currently in the sport, and with so little to call between their abilities it may well be the teams that decide it. Whilst they may not have produced the fastest car, Mercedes are an incredibly well oiled machine, and know how to win. Red Bull however have more often than not spent the last 7 years capitalising on the mistakes of others, or employing risky strategies in order to take victory. I think this really showed in Bahrain. Whilst they would have certainly been helped if Sergio Perez was up there with Max, they ultimately made the wrong call with pit stops, and seemed to struggle slightly with the pressure of being the team with everything to loose.
What may well be another deciding factor in the championship is reliability. A major pitfall of Verstappen’s 2020 campaign, without his 5 retirements (4 due to issues with the car, 1 due to a Mr Charles Leclerc) he surely would have taken 2nd place in the championship from Valterri Bottas. Red Bull’s title hopes will rely on them smoothing out this problem that has not afflicted Mercedes nearly as much: since the beginning of the Turbo-hybrid era in 2014, Hamilton has suffered only 5 reliability-based retirements.
Teammates are also going to prove important, both in terms of split-strategies and intra-team rivalries. Checo Perez is a bit of an unknown entity in this field, though I do believe he will be consistently up there and allow Red Bull to fight the Black Arrows on two fronts. He was unlucky with both qualifying and the electrical issue that forced him to start from the pitlane at the Sakhir circuit, but put in a sterling drive to finish P5. We saw a feisty rivalry develop between him and Esteban Ocon back at Force India, and Checo will know this might be his only chance of driving a race-winning car and that he will need to be aggressive sometimes and not waste this opportunity. He will also know though that the team will not be at all impressed should he compromise Max’s or their Championship hopes. After all, Helmut Marko seems to have no problem changing his drivers as often as his underwear. Bottas claims he has a new attitude this year, and isn’t going to allow himself to get walked all over, but we’ll have to see if he is all bark and no bite. We’ve heard this kind of chat from him before, but it’s never really translated onto the track. I certainly wouldn’t rule out a return of ‘Valterri, it’s James’ in 2021.
I think it’s quite interesting to take a look back to the last (and only) time Max competed for a championship title in cars. In the 2014 European Formula 3 he came third, winning the most races, but with the joint second most retirements. Comparing his results with those of the series winner (a certain Esteban Ocon), the disparity in consistency is clear, and the old all-or-nothing Max was alive and kicking. Whilst we’ve seen Verstappen develop and progress from his ‘Crashstappen’ days into a more calculated and mature driver, this has been largely whilst he has been sitting happily in a bit of a no-man’s-land between the Mercedes and the midfield. With the stakes raised and a potential championship on the line, might we see Max regress back to his old ways?
I don’t think so, but he certainly has a deficit to Hamilton in terms of experience leading an F1 World Championship, maintaining the fight all season long, and knowing what risks to take when such a huge prize is on the line. However, we saw a similar situation to this in 2006, and the feisty young driver going head to head with the 7-time world champion won (I realise Alonso had already beaten Schumacher to a Championship, but the 2005 Ferrari was so poor it doesn’t fit the comparison!). Max has got better and better each season he has competed in F1 (with the exception of the learning-curve that was 2017), and there is nothing to suggest his skill won’t continue to grow in 2021.
Whilst Max has always been one of the hungriest drivers on the grid, Lewis doesn’t seem to have lost any of his relish and desire for winning. I have rarely seen him as energised and excited as he was at Bahrain, and he clearly still wants to win as much as, if not more than, anyone else. I think Lewis must also realise that if he were to win this year it might well be his most impressive victory since his maiden Championship in 2008, emphatically silencing the haters who credit his car as the source of his success, rather than his talent.
Hamilton made 3 significant mistakes in 2020 (at Austria, Monza and Russia), with only one of these being a racing error. He was able to recover from the penalties awarded to him and score decent points in all these circumstances. Verstappen’s ‘off’ races though (Monza and Turkey) were more marked by his inability to get on top of the car for whatever reason, and he made his worst mistake in the last two and a half years with his big spin at Turkey. On the other hand, I can’t remember the last time when Hamilton just didn’t show up to a race (excluding Sakhir 2020!) Despite this, one could argue Max was the most consistent driver on the grid last season. He only had 1 result off the podium in all the races he finished last year, as opposed to Hamilton’s 2.
The race in Bahrain was Red Bull’s to loose, and that’s what they did. Right on Lewis’s tail with only a few laps to go, Max naturally wanted to make the move as soon as possible. If he had waited another lap though, and exercised a small amount of patience, the Alfa Romeo of Antonio Giovinazzi would not have been slowing on the inside line into turn 4, he would not have been forced to go so far around the outside to complete the overtake, and likely would not have gone wide and subsequently be asked to give the position back. Giovinazzi’s presence was undoubtedly a help to Hamilton, but Verstappen could have helped himself as well. As long as he learns from this then it shouldn’t be a mistake that costs him in the battle for the title.
So, when the paddock packs up for the final time in December, who will be heading home with the most coveted trophy of them all? For the first time since 2017, its not a simple answer of Lewis Hamilton. But only a fool would bet all their money on Max Verstappen. It’s far too close to call, especially at this early stage, but personally, that’s exactly what I want. My heart says Max, but my head says Lewis, though I don’t know whether this is simply because I am so conditioned to expect him to win. The one thing I can say with confidence though is that we are going to be treated to an iconic fight, between two exceptional talents, for motorsport’s greatest prize.
